China's consumer confidence declined sharply in May to 99.0 from 103.7 in April. Of course household spending in China represents only around 35% of the GDP (according to the World Bank), while the US consumer is over 70%. Nevertheless taken together with China's manufacturing PMI, we may be seeing signs of renewed economic weakness.

In another sign of recent weakness in the manufacturing sector, capacity utilization in the US has stalled, as demand remains soft. US industries are producing significantly below their capacity and "5.5 percentage points below long-run average" according to the Fed.

Ian McCafferty notes that "anyone under the age of about 45 will not have an adult memory of high inflation. "That is proof that the inflation genie has been successfully kept in the bottle. But it also means that there is a risk that the low and stable inflation of the past two decades is now being taken for granted".

The rate curve implied by the Fed Funds futures has steepened considerably over the past month. The market now anticipates the Fed beginning to raise the overnight rate in May of 2015.

China's interbank rates have unexpectedly spiked last week as the SHIBOR curve (China's LIBOR equivalent) became highly inverted. Given that there have been no indications of a change in policy by the PBoC (the central bank), there is only one thing that can cause such a move: a liquidity squeeze.

The protests that have convulsed Istanbul, Ankara and other Turkish cities in recent days were entirely unexpected but they embody a mood of frustration, anger and disempowerment that has been building for years. A diverse-and by no means united-cross section of Turkish society feels increasingly resentful of the direction the country is taking under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, its divisive but hugely successful prime minister.

Some in the mass media continue to be confused about the historical trajectory of the Fed's balance sheet. People have trouble distinguishing between the liquidity facilities provided by the central bank and the various monetary expansion activities. Here is a historical "map" to show how we got here.

ADP data on private payrolls has an interesting story to tell about job creation in the US. It is particularly helpful to understand job creation in terms of business size. ADP breaks down businesses into small: 1-49 employees, medium: 50-499 employees, and large: 500 and greater.

While global economic conditions remain a concern, senior financial executives in emerging markets see the most robust opportunities for growth over the next 12 months.

Business executives' optimism about the U.S. economy now stands at its highest point since early 2007, although lingering concerns continue to curtail hiring plans, according to the second quarter AICPA Economic Outlook Survey.